MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING PARTS OF LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/MA AND SRN NH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 021645Z - 021745Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND SWD TO NJ...SERN PA AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AROUND NOON IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM SERN PA AND NJ NWD TO NH. THIS HEATING OCCURRING WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT /PW VALUES OF 1.7 TO NEAR 2 INCHES/ HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST AND BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
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