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Thursday, September 25, 2014

SPACE WARS: CHINA / RUSSIA SEEKING TO DESTROY U.S. SATELLITES - CHINA TESTED MISSILE ALREADY

Ensuring the Long-Term Sustainability and Security of the Space Environment


Remarks
Frank A. Rose
Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance
American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, National Capital Section, Army Navy Country Club
Arlington, VA
September 25, 2014



Introduction
Good afternoon. Today, I’d like to discuss a vital interest of the United States, as well as the entire global community: ensuring the long-term sustainability, stability, safety, and security of the space environment.

This audience is not one that needs to be convinced of the importance of the space environment to our national security. We all know very well that space assets are integral to our national security, as well as that of our allies and coalition partners.

For over five decades the global community has been inspired by humanity's space endeavors and reaped the benefits of the use and exploration of outer space. Some may take these benefits for granted so we must educate the public about the consequences if the space environment were to become unusable.

Outer space is a domain that no nation owns but on which all rely. Today the outer space environment is becoming increasingly congested from orbital debris, and contested from man-made threats—such as debris-generating Anti-Satellite systems—that may disrupt the space environment, upon which we all depend. The world’s growing dependence on the globe-spanning and interconnected nature of space capabilities mean that it is more important than ever for all citizens to understand that irresponsible acts in space by one entity can have damaging consequences for all. Therefore, it is essential that all nations work together to adopt approaches for responsible activity in space in order to preserve this domain for future generations.

In my remarks today, I would like to cover two aspects in regard to ensuring the security and sustainability of the space environment: first, the risks and dangers to space systems from debris generating anti-satellite or ASAT tests; second, the role of international diplomatic initiatives in protecting the long-term sustainability and security of the space environment.

Threats to Outer Space

Let me start with the risks and dangers. On July 23, the Chinese Government conducted a non-destructive test of a missile designed to destroy satellites in low Earth orbit. Despite China’s claims that this was a missile defense test; let me assure you the United States has high confidence in its assessment, that the event was indeed an ASAT test.

And China is not the only one pursuing these capabilities. As Director of National Intelligence James Clapper noted in his February 2014 congressional testimony, "Russian leaders openly maintain that the Russian armed forces have antisatellite weapons and conduct antisatellite research."

The United States believes that these threats, which include the continued development and testing of destructive anti-satellite systems, are both destabilizing and threaten the long-term security and sustainability of the outer space environment including all who benefit from outer space including the scientific, commercial, and civil space communities. Indeed, thousands of pieces of debris from the 2007 Chinese ASAT test continue to endanger space systems—as well as astronauts—from all nations, including China.

On the security side, ASAT weapons directly threaten satellites and the strategic and tactical information those satellites provide, and their use could be escalatory in a crisis or conflict. They also pose a direct threat to key assets used in arms control verification monitoring, command and control and communication, and warning and attack assessment. A debris generating test or attack may only be minutes in duration, but the consequences can last decades and indiscriminately threaten the space-based assets of all space-faring nations, and the information from space upon which all nations depend. On the civil space side, there have been numerous examples of the need to raise the orbit of the International Space Station due to a conjunction with a piece of debris from the 2007 Chinese ASAT test. And just as these systems threaten our national security space systems, they can threaten the civil satellites that are so essential to our everyday lives like weather satellites.

Multilateral Efforts toward a Stable and Sustainable Space Environment

Given these threats and the current era where dozens of States and nongovernmental organizations are harnessing the benefits of outer space, we have no choice but to work with our allies and partners around the world to ensure the long-term sustainability of the space environment. We also must speak clearly and publicly about what behavior the international community should find both acceptable and unacceptable. Over the past few years, the United States has worked to support a number of multilateral initiatives that seek to establish “rules of the road” for space that are both in the national security interests of the United States, and will further the long-term stability and sustainability of the space environment.

Just last year, I served as the United States expert on a United Nations-sponsored Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) study of outer space transparency and confidence-building measures (TCBMs). The GGE report which was published in July of last year and agreed to by China and Russia endorsed voluntary, non-legally binding TCBMs to strengthen stability in space. The GGE recommended that States implement measures to promote coordination to enhance safety and predictability in the uses of outer space. The GGE also endorsed “efforts to pursue political commitments, for example, a multilateral code of conduct, to encourage responsible actions in, and the peaceful use of, outer space.”

This International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities is another important multilateral initiative. Among the Code’s commitments for signatories is to refrain from any action which brings about, directly or indirectly, damage, or destruction, of space objects and to minimize, to the greatest extent possible, the creation of space debris, in particular, the creation of long-lived space debris. The Code could also help solidify safe operational practices, reduce the chance of collisions or other harmful interference with nations’ activities, contribute to our awareness of the space environment through notifications, and strengthen stability in space by helping establish norms for responsible behavior in space.

Lastly, the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) is also doing important work to move forward in the development of new international long-term sustainability guidelines. U.S. experts from the private sector as well the federal government have played a leading role in the COPUOS Working Group on Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, including key contributions from AIAA experts on space technical standards. These efforts contribute to the development of multilateral and bilateral space TCBMs. Exchanges of information between space operations centers also can serve as useful confidence building measures.

Multilateral diplomatic initiatives contribute greatly to defining acceptable and unacceptable behaviors in space and therefore are key components of the United States deterrence strategy. In addition, if we are serious about maintaining the space environment for future generations, we must support such measures that promote positive activities in space and further the creation of norms which dissuade countries from taking destabilizing actions such as the testing of debris-generating ASAT systems. By working with the international community, we can, and must, advance the long-term sustainability and security of the outer space environment for all nations and future generations