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Friday, September 2, 2016

HURRICANE HERMINE TO IMPACT EAST COAST OF U.S. - LIKELY TO REMAIN HURRICANE THROUGH SUNDAY



TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

While the cloud pattern of Hermine has become elongated north and
east of the center, and the central convective tops have warmed,
numerous surface observations of 40-kt winds along the South
Carolina coast support maintaining an initial intensity of 45 kt for
this advisory.  While the center of Hermine remains over land for
the next 12 to 18 hours, little change in intensity is expected,
as the strongest winds should remain over the coastal waters of the
Carolinas.  After the center moves offshore, intensification is
expected through a combination of diabatic and baroclinic processes.
The global models continue to show Hermine interacting with a potent
upper-level shortwave trough in 2-3 days, and the system is expected
to restrengthen to near hurricane force in 48 to 72 hours.  As the
upper-level forcing moves away, slow weakening is expected later in
the period.  The NHC intensity forecast is above the tropical
cyclone guidance suite and is based largely on global models.



The initial motion estimate is 055/17, as Hermine is currently
embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a positively-
tilted mid-latitude trough.  During the next 36 to 48 hours the
cyclone should gradually slow down and then turn more poleward as
the shortwave trough amplifies over the central Appalachians and
mid-Atlantic states.  This trough interacts with and superimposes
itself on top of Hermine between 48 and 72 hours.  Not surprisingly,
there are differences in the details of how the model guidance
handles the motion of Hermine during this time, with the ECMWF and
ECMWF ensemble mean along the western side of the guidance by 72
hours, and the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET farther to the east.  Note that
the interaction between Hermine and the upper trough could result in
some looping motions that are not captured by the 12 and 24 hour
spacing of the official NHC forecast points.  Late in the forecast
period, a northeastward motion is expected as the upper trough
slides eastward.  Spread continues in the guidance at those times
as well, with the HWRF joining the ECMWF on the left side of the
guidance envelope at those times.  Overall, the new NHC forecast has
been adjusted a bit to the left and is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.  This track is near the GEFS ensemble mean and a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF.  Needless to say, small changes in the
eventual track of Hermine could result in large changes in impacts
along the mid-Atlantic coast.

The NHC forecast shows Hermine as a post-tropical cyclone in 36
hours, but model fields do not show it undergoing a full
extratropical transition, as it instead appears to acquire a warm
seclusion structure with a strong low-level vortex underneath an
upper-level low.  There is a possibility that the system could
regain some tropical characteristics in 3-5 days, but this remains
uncertain.  It is important to remind users that Hermine is expected
to remain a dangerous cyclone through the forecast period regardless
of the details of its structure.

Based on the latest forecast, tropical storm warnings have been
expanded northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook,
New Jersey.

KEY MESSAGE:

1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still
producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land.  NWS policy
allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm watches
and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system continues
to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and the NWS
Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked for
Hermine.  After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products
for as long as the system remains a significant threat to land.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 33.0N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  03/0600Z 34.5N  77.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/1800Z 36.1N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  04/0600Z 37.1N  73.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  04/1800Z 37.8N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/1800Z 38.4N  72.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  06/1800Z 39.7N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H  07/1800Z 40.5N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL



Hurricane Local Statement

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 22
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-030630-

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  AL092016
628 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

THIS PRODUCT COVERS NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

 **TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR HERMINE**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOR
      MOST AREAS

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEW
      CASTLE...KENT...INLAND SUSSEX...DELAWARE BEACHES...WESTERN
      MONMOUTH...EASTERN
      MONMOUTH...SALEM...OCEAN...CUMBERLAND...ATLANTIC...CAPE
      MAY...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL
      OCEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON
    - A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLESEX

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ OR ABOUT 500
      MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOVER DE
    - 33.0N 80.5W
    - STORM INTENSITY 50 MPH
    - MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OR STALL OFF THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY
COASTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DELAWARE AND
COASTAL NEW JERSEY FROM CAPE MAY TO SANDY HOOK AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALL OF DELAWARE BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NEW
JERSEY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAND
AREAS NEAR THE ATLANTIC SHORE AND THE SHORE OF DELAWARE BAY. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND OVER DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. IF THE STORM STALLS AND RE-
INTENSIFIES AS FORECAST, MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD DEVELOP BY
MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. SOME AREAS
NEAR THE COAST IN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY MAY RECEIVE 4 TO
6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

HAZARDOUS SEAS AND DANGEROUSLY ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A MODERATE
TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES DURING THIS
TIME.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG
THE SHORE OF DELAWARE BAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA
INCLUDE:
    - AREAS OF INUNDATION ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING
      ENHANCED BY WAVES. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO SEVERAL BUILDINGS,
      MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
    - SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS COULD
      BECOME WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE
      LOW SPOTS.
    - MAJOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVY SURF BREACHING
      DUNES. STRONG AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
    - MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS IS
      ANTICIPATED. SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT MAY BE BROKEN AWAY FROM
      MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY IN UNPROTECTED AREAS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND., LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ACROSS NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELWARE. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
    - SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND SIDING IS LIKELY, ALONG WITH DAMAGE
      TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, AND SHEDS. A FEW BUILDINGS WILL
      EXPERIENCE WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES. MOBILE HOMES
      MAY BE DAMAGED, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT
      OBJECTS COULD BECOME AIRBORNE.
    - SEVERAL LARGE TREES MAY BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. SEVERAL FENCES
      AND ROADWAY SIGNS COULD BE BLOWN OVER.
    - SOME ROADS MAY BE IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS. A FEW BRIDGES,
      CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS ROUTES MAY BE IMPASSABLE.
    - THERE COULD BE SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT
      MORE PREVALENT IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS INLAND PARTS OF NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE, THE MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - LOCALIZED RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT A FEW EVACUATIONS.
    - RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS.
      SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME SWOLLEN
      AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
    - FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER A FEW STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY IN
      VULNERABLE SPOTS. RAPID PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR AT
      UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEVERAL
      STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS BECOME NEAR-FULL AND BEGIN TO
      OVERFLOW. SOME BRIEF ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND., LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO BRING TO COMPLETION ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN.

OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COMPLETELY DETERIORATE. ANY REMAINING EVACUATIONS
AND RELOCATIONS SHOULD BE EXPEDITED BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND.

IF YOU ARE RELOCATING TO SAFE SHELTER, LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. IF
HEADING TO A COMMUNITY SHELTER, BECOME FAMILIAR WITH THE SHELTER
RULES BEFORE ARRIVAL, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE SPECIAL NEEDS OR OWN A
PET. TAKE ESSENTIAL ITEMS WITH YOU FROM YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES KIT.
CHECK THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST BEFORE DEPARTING.

FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF
LIFE. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. REMEMBER, DURING THE STORM 9 1 1 EMERGENCY
SERVICES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO IMMEDIATELY RESPOND IF CONDITIONS ARE
UNSAFE. THIS SHOULD BE A BIG FACTOR IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.

CHECK-IN WITH YOUR EMERGENCY POINTS OF CONTACT AMONG FAMILY, FRIENDS,
AND WORKMATES. INFORM THEM OF YOUR STATUS AND WELL-BEING. LET THEM
KNOW HOW YOU INTEND TO RIDE OUT THE STORM AND WHEN YOU PLAN TO
CHECK-IN AGAIN.

IF YOU ARE A VISITOR AND STILL IN THE AREA, LISTEN FOR THE NAME OF
THE CITY OR TOWN IN WHICH YOU ARE STAYING WITHIN LOCAL NEWS UPDATES.
BE SURE YOU KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH IT RESIDES. PAY
ATTENTION FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ AROUND MIDNIGHT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


Tropical Storm Warning

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
557 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE INCLUDING LOWER DELAWARE BAY...

.TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AND THEN SLOW DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO STALL TO
THE EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO DANGEROUS HEIGHTS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANZ431-450>455-031100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.TR.W.1009.160902T2157Z-000000T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
557 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT.

* SEAS...20 TO 25 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE LOWER
  DELAWARE BAY.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
  OCCUR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO
  EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDWEEK WITH HERMINE
  MEANDERING OFFSHORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KT ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36 HOURS.