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Thursday, September 1, 2016

WARNING: Florida, Georgia, and the Eastern Virgina, NJ Coastal Region, Long Island, NY

Hurricane HERMINE 

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HURRICANE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
400 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016



Hermine was recently upgraded to a hurricane based on an
SFMR-observed surface wind from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft.  The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on that
observation.  Satellite images show that the cloud pattern continues
to gradually become better organized with more distinct curved bands
of showers and thunderstorms, although the system currently lacks
concentrated inner-core convection.  Hermine has a little more time
to strengthen, so the official forecast shows a slight additional
increase in intensity before landfall.  This is consistent with the
latest LGEM guidance.  Hermine is forecast to become extratropical
at 48 hours when the global models forecast it to become embedded
within a frontal zone.  Later in the forecast period,
vertical shear decreases and the cyclone could be situated over
marginally warm waters.  Therefore there is the possibility of the
system regaining some tropical characteristics in 4-5 days, although
this is speculative at this time.

Aircraft center fixes indicate that the motion remains 030/12 kt.
The flow on the eastern side of a mid-level trough over the
southeastern United States should cause Hermine to move
north-northeastward to northeastward with some increase in forward
speed during the next day so.  By 48 hours, the track guidance
shows the system slowing down as it begins to interact with a
mid-level cutoff vortex over the eastern United States.  In 3 days
or so, the post-tropical cyclone merges with the cutoff low and a
further slowing down of the motion is expected.  The official track
forecast lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. As landfall nears, it is important to not focus on the exact
forecast track.  Hermine is an extremely asymmetric storm, with a
large extent of dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and
flooding rains well to the east and southeast of the path of the
center.

2. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still
producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land.  NWS policy
allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm
watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system
continues to pose a significant threat to life and property.
NHC and the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be
invoked for Hermine.  After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone,
NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning
products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to
land.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 28.5N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 30.2N  83.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 32.4N  81.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/0600Z 34.5N  78.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/1800Z 36.3N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/1800Z 38.5N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  06/1800Z 39.5N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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HURRICANE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
2100 UTC THU SEP 01 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
UNITED STATES ATLANTIC COAST NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK...NORTH
CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF DUCK TO SANDY
HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT
SOUTHWARD...
AND THE SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO MEXICO BEACH

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* WEST OF MEXICO BEACH TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* WEST OF MEXICO BEACH TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO DUCK
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK TO SANDY HOOK
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD
* SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UNITED STATES NORTHEAST COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  85.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 160SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 150SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  85.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  85.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.2N  83.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.4N  81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N  78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.3N  75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 38.5N  71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 39.5N  70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N  85.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH